Gloria: not waving but …

She is clearly flailing now. After Monday’s televised address I wrote that the barnacle would survive. Six days later I’m starting to wonder about that.

Since some sort of the equilibrium has been reached as the two sides regroup for the next round, I’ll take this chance to catch breath and reflect on some of the events of the last pulsating week.

Monday: Zeus climbed down from Olympus and onto our TV screens. Although Gloria’s doe-eyed apology was competently done, the broadcast seems to have been a mistake. It would have been much better if she had carried on with her “I’m too busy fixing the economy of the country to bother with such trivial matters as wiretapping” approach.

Tuesday: Reacting to the speech, opposition and civil society groups pointed out that what the president apologized for (speaking to an election official) was not what she was accused of (cheating), while from Drilon and Defensor we had a lot of rather unconvincing waffle about closing of chapters and moving on. (Politicians come up with such unoriginal metaphors–if Drilon had said “let’s get up off the toilet and flush these turds into Manila Bay” it would have been so much more memorable.)

Wednesday: Susan Roces, the widow of defeated Presidential candidate Fernando Poe, Jr,, calls on GMA to resign (see next post).

Rep Roilo Golez, Gloria’s former national security adviser, announced he was leaving her party, Kampi, citing his dissatisfaction with her response to the tape scandal–the first heavyweight defection from her coalition. In trying to belittle Golez’s move, House majority leader Prospero Nograles drew an unfortunate historical parallel, pointing out that Golez had also deserted the Marcos and Estrada administrations are they were unraveling. Hmm, sounds to me like Golez knows what he’s doing, Prospero.

Oh, and Gloria “exiled” her husband—a move that appeased nobody and looked merely desperate.

Friday: The biggest opposition rally so far, perhaps 10,000 people. The rally was attended by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito, Ilocos Norte Representative Imee Marcos, and former senator Ernesto Maceda (a particularly charmless bunch I think you'll agree).

In one of the most bizarre developments of the week the Supreme Court suspended the implementation of the expanded VAT (the absolute centerpiece of the government’s economic policy). What a strange country this is. The judges make the laws and the lawmakers play at being judges (see former chief justice Isagani Cruz's brilliant demolition of the fatuous "investigations in aid of legislation" in today's Inquirer). The financial markets are going to make it very clear what they think of the Supreme Court's decision when the markets open on Monday.

Meanwhile, Senator (cough) Jinggoy Estrada came up with his own future scenario:

"FORMER President Joseph Estrada will head a national council that will take over the reins of government after President Arroyo is ousted, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada said Thursday.

Estrada, son of the former president, agreed with the actress Susan Roces in rejecting snap elections, impeachment and the law on succession that would fill the power vacuum should the President resign as the opposition had demanded. Roces, widow of 2004 presidential candidate Fernando Poe, did not dismiss the possibility of a junta’s ruling the country. However, the President has refused to resign, and her leaders said that any move against her should follow the Constitution.

Estrada agreed that with the rejection of snap elections, the law on succession and impeachment, only extraconstitutional means would be available to replace the President, should she eventually go."

Sassy has a brilliant post on this nightmarish vision and the complete abandonment of the constitution it would imply.

I just love living in Manila in times like these. It’s wrong of me I know, given that critically important issues for the future of the country are being decided, but I can’t help it. I’ve lived through military and palace coups in other countries but these are best, perhaps because, despite its many problems and faults, the Philippines is a comparatively open, free, and heavily politicized country. The arrival of blogs has taken debate to a whole new level – the conversations on the Sassy Lawyer, Manuel Quezon, and the PCIJ blog are truly a cyber version of 18th century coffeeshop chatter.

Most of all I love the current crisis because I haven’t the faintest idea how it is all going to turn out. And you know what? I don’t think anyone else does either.

Comments

[Jonjon]

The Supreme Court move appears to be calculated, and it might have been deliberately encouraged by the Arroyo camp to diffuse any more protest actions that will be jumpstarted by a sudden jump in prices.

[torn]

Hi Jonjon -- Yes, I heard that theory, and Sassy seems to believe it. But is that really possible? That the president can just call up 13 of the 15 most eminent judges in the country and say I would rather you decided against the government on this important point of legal principle to help me out of a temporary jam?

If that is true, then the country is in an even worse state than I imagined. However, in my naïve ignorance, it seems improbable that the judiciary would be such a complete puppet of the executive. Are they really such stooges? And did Gloria really benefit from the decision? She lives or dies by her economic programme and the evat is the centerpiece of that. Just look at what happened today—the largest one day fall in share prices since the 1997 crisis. She would have encouraged that just to stop 3 pesos on the price of petrol?

You guys know much more about it all than me, but for the time I’ll stick with my belief that this theory is just a creation of today’s supercharged atmosphere.

[the wily filipino]

Thanks for the insightful recap -- this is more rollercoastery than it has been in the previous week (too bad I'm back in San Francisco!).

[torn]

Yes it's a wild ride all right and pretty soon someone is going to get thrown off.

I saw you were in Los Banos -- drop me a line next time you come through and let's try to meet for a beer.

[Bong rivera]

Dapat si Binay ang bitayin at si Francis Escudero, Pimentel at ang lahat na mga opposition sa mga ginagawang kaguluhan sa pilipinas, sila ang mga panggulo at walang silbing mga public official ng bansa. Wala na silang ginawa kundi magreklamo sa gobyerno, ano ba ang kanilang pinaglalaban? Ano ba ang gusto nilang mangyari sa ating bansa? Gusto ba nilang mamuno? Ano-ano ba ang kani-kanilang plano para sa mga mamamayan? Mga walang malasakit, mga walang kwentang namumuno ng bansa, dapat yan ang i-exile eh. Sila lang naman ang mga perhuwisyo sa pamahalahan eh, yan si Escudero, ano ba ang layunin niya sa mga taong naghihirap? Ibig ba yang mangyari niyan siya ang gustong mamuno? Eh, pare-pareho lang naman ang intention ng mga nasa pamahalahan eh, mangurakot, di ba? Sila ang lason ng gobyerno. Walang inintindi kundi sariling kapakanan lamang.