Gloria’s appeasement has been her undoing

I always thought that that Gloria’s compulsive urge to appease all parties would be her downfall. Reports on the cabinet resignations reveal that before Gloria’s fateful address to the nation the cabinet was split. Abad, Soliman, Purisima, etc felt that the President had to speak on the tapes issue and admit her guilt; Defensor and other loyalistas favoured continued stonewalling. In the event, Gloria carefully selected her choices to get the worst of both worlds. She made an address (thus directly involving herself in the crisis) yet she did not go far enough to satisfy the Abad and Purisima group who all resigned anyway.

Comments

[mlq3]

so how long do you give the barnacle?

[torn]

Every time I am unwise enough to make a prediction I am confounded by subsequent events. I am sure there is still a sting in the tale of this and (being the Philippines) it may be something none of us had thought of).

However, it seems to me that the country now faces a choice between a constitutional and an extraconstitutional route. If events stay within the law, she will stay, perhaps not until 2010 but at least for a while.

Despite Susan Roces's claim yesterday that "With God's help, we will solve our problems through peaceful means", the opposition has nothing to gain from a constitutional course. Gloria, Noli, Drilon, de Venecia (as Prime Minister in a parliamentary system) -- they are all the same as far as the pro-Estrada forces are concerned. My guess is that they are going to steadily apply the pressure (I understand another expose, this time on Pagcor money, is due -- I'll post about that in a minute) leading up to the 25 July rally. I think Jinggoy's civilian-military junta is still favoured by many on that side.

So perhaps it will come down to down to a battle of the classes: a middle class rapidly consolidating around GMA and the forces of disorder. As always, it will be the military that plays the last card.