Governor Panlilio will need his mountain boots in 2010

Outsiders’ stars usually shine brightest just before serious campaigning begins. In the UK, this manifests iteself in claims the next election could provide a “break through” for the Liberal Democrats (the perennial third party). In money-dominated US politics, this is when the billionaires, the Bloombergs, the Forbes, and the Perots, start to fish for support.

The hard truth is that it is very difficult to break established political blocs in any country. The Liberal Democrats have never received more than 25% of the vote in the UK and Ross Perot, the most successful US third party candidate of modern times, received only 18.9% in 1992.

The possibility of a Panlilio-Padaca ticket in the 2010 presidential ticket has been greeted with tremendous enthusiasm in some quarters, including this one, but we will need to wait until the provincial strongmen start beautifying the landscape with their handsome campaign posters before we know how realistic its chances are. As the dawn breaks on the campaigning season, the mountain that lies before Among Ed is going to appear through the early morning mists and it’s a steep one.

Nevertheless, there are pointers in favour of a Panlilio run this time.

Even if we forget the surreal prospect of another shot at the presidency by Erap, at this stage the field looks quite dispersed. It is futile to talk of Philippine politics in terms of “parties,” since these form and dissolve as quickly as high-school cliques, but recent years have been dominated by two main “blocs”: a populist bloc congregated boozily around Joseph Estrada, and a neo-conservative bloc led first by Fidel Ramos, then by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (in the executive branch) and Joe de Venecia (in the legislature), and since their falling out, simply by Gloria. The dominance of these two blocs can be seen in the results from 2004, when their combined tally represented 76% of the vote.

The Erap and administration blocs will be heavily represented in 2010 and presumably heads will be knocked together to stop a repetition of Ping’s disastrous campaign in 2004, which split the Erap bloc and effectively denied FPJ the presidency (along with the Garci shenanigans of course).

Let’s say for the sake of argument that the Erap bloc puts up Binay and Escudero (sorry Loren) and the administration fields de Castro and Bayani.

That still leaves Manny Villar and Mar Roxas, who will almost certainly run very well- funded campaigns, not to mention the usual crazies (Eddie Gill, Imelda, et al) who pop up to brighten our mundane lives at such times.

These four teams have the money and machinery to pick up at least 5 million votes (about 15% of the electorate) each. That leaves about 40% to be divided between them and a credible fifth candidate. If Panlilio runs a decent campaign, that could be him. If the votes are spread fairly evenly, 25%-30% might just win it. The victor would have great difficulty in claiming a mandate, and we can expect the usual post-poll protests, but that will be the case whoever wins.

Panlilio’s greatest ally will be public dissatisfaction with the current system and the desire for a moral alternative. Still, such disenchantment has been building for a long time and look who was voted in last time. Panlilio also has to expect opponents to work hard to blacken his pure image; criticisms have started already, and it will be difficult for him to make it all the way through campaigning season without some muck sticking to that white shirt he usually wears.

Panlilio’s two most notable achievements have been increasing the revenues from quarry operations from Mount Pinatubo (he collected P29.4 million in his first month in office, which was about the same as his predecessor collected in a year) and his return of a paper bag containing P500,000 after a meeting between President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and local officials in Malacañang. These are impressive, but will they be enough to take him all the way?

Panlilio’s victory in 2007 was remarkable, but it took place in very particular circumstances. Even by the standards of Philippine elections, his two opponents (the corrupt and useless Lapid and the wife of the provincial gambling lord, Bong Pineda) seemed to come straight from Third World Politics for dummies. He won’t have such easy targets in 2010.

One of the most important questions Panlilio will have to answer has been posed by blogger Carlo Ople: “If you really want to stay in politics, why not focus on Pampanga first?” That’s a legitimate question, I think. Among Ed has been governor of Pampanga for less than two years, shouldn’t he complete his work there before aspiring to national office? There are legitimate answers to that question but Ed and his advisers are going to have prepare them because it is a point that is already being made.

I am not trying to pour cold water on Brother Ed’s prospects; personally I would love it if he ran and won, especially if he is in tandem with the courageous governor of Isabella, Grace Padaca. If I had the vote, I would certainly put my cross against their names. But winning against the entrenched patronage network that has led the country into its current mess would be an enormous feat, greater in its way even than Obama’s victory last November.

The odds against a fifth candidate, even one comparatively well known like Panlilio, are enormous. His supporters may argue that Panlilio and Grace Padaca won the gubernatorial races in Pampanga and Isabella with no funds and no machinery but surely it would be impossible to run a national campaign on a shoestring. As Nicanor Perlas points out, politicians from outside “the system” can win, but only if they manage to mobilize civil society on an almost unprecedented scale. If there is to be a fifth column in 2010 it will need more than Brother Ed’s sincerity, it will require a campaign with enormous organizational expertise, support from the traditional leftist parties (Bayan Muna is already making positive noises), a huge fundraising effort, and possible links with Mar Roxas's campaign. All that is possible, but since it is starting from zero, the campaign has to start right away.

PS A half hour interview with Ed Panlilio can be found here.

Comments

[Jose Marcelo]

Among Ed will surprise us all!

[Carla]

I dunno. Sure, he's honest and incorruptible, but he's a priest. Has Philippine democracy progressed so little in the last 2 decades that it cannot produce a moral, rational, competent and inspiring candidate who is not part of an institution that also oppresses the country?

Don't answer that.

[gail]

I'm all for it -- honest and incorruptible. Yes, unfortunately he's a priest but if he does inspire people to become more involved and more vigilant, and if he does show people there's another way, and starts to prove that "new politics" works (and blows all the trapos away in terms of achievements)then maybe that's his path, and priesthood was just a way to get there.

Hopeful in Cebu,
Gail

[Mike Arroyo]

He won't change jack-shit. Remember Cory, the moral political-virgin? She couldn't change nothing.

If you go by the microcosm that is Pampanga today, where the mayors and governors refuse to cooperate with him, I foresee a Panlilio presidency would be like Indonesia's Abdurrahman Wahid: popular (or populist), but ultimately futile.

[torn]

Carla -- Ha, ha -- you sound so British sometimes ("I dunno"). I think we take what we can get, right? If someone comes up with a good candidate who reflects my values perfectly I’ll pick him or her. But that’s just not going to happen. Although he is a priest and I am an atheist, Panilio seems miles better than the rest—also more in accord with Filipinos than my ideal would be.

Gail -- Agree completely, especially "maybe that's his path, and priesthood was just a way to get there."

Mike – You might be right, but at least with Cory and Panlilio we get a semblance of hope—how optimistic can you get about a Noli de Castro or Manny Villar presidency?

[Mike Arroyo]

He doesn't have a party to back him. He'll create one, and none of his party mates will get elected in Congress or Senate because the electorate who they 'coz they won't have name recognition (despite being moral do-gooders).

It will result in him not getting any majority votes in the legislature during his term. Then rainbow opposition will impeach him during his first or second term (reason: impeach Panlilio to separate church and state).

Presidential candidates never contemplate how important it is having a legislative majority. They should take note from GMA and Ramos presidency.

Any reform agenda will need to be written in law form first. A plan to eradicate graft and corruption? Must be written into law. Build more roads and bridges? Must be written into law. Balance the budget? Must be written into law.

Many so-called "reform" politicians never get far because they don't have a well-entrenched legislative majority. They don't have a legislative majority because they don't have a well-entrenched party. They don't have a well-entrenched, national party because they have no ideology backing that party. And they have no ideology because they absolutely have no idea on how to reform this country.

[Sili]

Why is everyone saying Among Ed/Si Grace? Baliktad, diba? Why not Si Grace/Among Ed? Then we get all the non-trapo do-gooderness without so deeply blurring the line between church and state. Also it seems si Grace is better at coalition building and getting things done while still in no way being a trapo.

[Carla]

Torn, you're right. Elections are always contests, one picks from among imperfect choices.

I'm not after a perfect candidate (no such creature) but I think there should be non-negotiables. It's not even that I'm agnostic that I object to priests being in government--it's my belief in the idea of civilian leadership in a democratic state.

I think even just symbollically--competence and integrity aside--it would retard Philippine politics so much to have a priest contesting that highest office and worse, winning it. Then there are the practicalities. Surely he's also a subject of the Vatican, a sovereign state. So will he follow Papal edicts? That spells the death of any rational population control policy, then.

I would think that after all the damage the church and the military have wrought on the Philippines, anyone from both establishments would be laughed out of politics. But no. Apart from Fr. Ed, I hear Gen. Danny Lim's name being touted about for political office. (Of course Sen. Trillanes got there ahead of him.) They may be reformers in their own right but they can't be leaders and representatives of a democracy because of the oppressive institutions they have served.

But who else is there? That's where I despair. Maybe I won't vote at all.

Sili, oo nga. Why not Grace Padaca?

Torn, I'll be British when I finally say "toMAHto". Which is never. :)

[jessie]

Panlilio will become the Raul Roco of the 2010 elections.

[jessie]

"I would think that after all the damage the church and the military have wrought on the Philippines, anyone from both establishments would be laughed out of politics.

Posted by: Carla | April 17, 2009 at 12:39 PM"

Um, excuse me, ever heard of Fidel Ramos? Only the best Philippine president of the last 20 years? He was from a military background.

[Carla]

Jessie,

Was FVR still a general when he ran for office?

Was he the best Philippine president of the last 20 years? I'm not sure, but that's another debate.

Former military men who are now presidents:
Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin (not a soldier per se but part of the intelligence apparatus as KGB chief in Germany).

Violence is a dificult habit to shed. So is religion.

[Carlo Ople]

Appreciate the link.

I stand by on my position that Among Ed should focus on Pampanga. He has so many problems there right now and a lot of the people there actually don't like him.

Before he even dreams of taking on the challenge of being Chief Executive of more than 7000 islands, he should make sure things are okay first with his province.

[Bruce in Iloilo]

This just points to a weakness in the current electoral process -- there is no primary system.

It took centuries of elections (1600s to 1900s), until the Progressive Era, for the US to adopt primaries and then until the 1970s for the presidential primary system to take full force. That is why outsiders and reformers like Carter, Reagan, and Obama can run and win the US presidency. Obama started in even a weaker position than Among Ed.

Or if not an American-style, grass-roots primary system, at least a French-style run-off system. Otherwise people will never vote for the reformer because they will be "throwing their vote away", and they would be.

[Bruce in Iloilo]

Are generals always bad? Former US Generals who have become president include George Washington, Andrew Jackson, Dwight Eisenhower and U.S. Grant -- 2 great, 1 better than average and another not a bad guy but corrupt friends.

[torn]

Thanks to everyone for your good comments.

Carla -- You've persuaded me. I agree; there would be far too many negatives associated with a priest, or former priest, if that is what he is to become, in Malacanang.

Mike -- I also agree with what you say about the need to build up support in the legslature (though I don't think it is necessarily a bad thing that the Pampangan mayors are against Panlilio -- in fact I would argue that if he is not attracting opposition from entrenched interests he can't really be a reforming governor).

To be effective,a reform-minded president would have to compromise to some extent wih the "old system" epitomised by by the congressmen grown fat on years of pork. It is true that Gloria did this, but at the expense of putting in place any meaningful program (what achievements will she leave behind her when she finally goes)? So, as in any political system, a would-be reform president would have to be clear about which aspects of his/her program could be sacrificed and which could not. Would Panlilio be able to strike this balance? I don't know -- perhaps (he has proved quite skillful at managing PR), perhaps not -- which brings us back to Carlo's point that we haven't really seen enough of what Among Ed can do in Pampanga.

Sili and Carla -- Sure, Grace could be put up but I don't think she would have a chance. The thing about Panlilio is that the very aspects of his candidacy that make liberals uneasy would be seen as positive attributes by many in the electorate. It is the perceived moral force derived from his relious associations that that would make Panlilio a formidable candidate -- Grace doesn't have that (unfortunately, because I think she is a wonderful person).

As for other candidates, Jesse Robredo, mayor of Naga City, is a name often bruited about, but, like Grace, I'm not sure he has has enough of a national profile (or organization).

That brings me back to one of the main points in the original post: there is only a year to go. If there is to be a reform candidate, whether Panlilio, Padaca, Robredo, or someone else, it may already be too late for them to mount an effective campaign.

As for the military, I'm definitely with Carla on that one -- we have more than enough military men messing up public life here as it is.

Bruce -- I think you raise an important and disquieting point. The fact is that with four or possibly five strong candidates in the field the winner in 2010 is not going to get anywhere near a national majority, which will raise all the questions about legitimacy that have hounded the Arroyo administration being repeated after the result. A primry system ould help to whittle down the field I agree, but personally I quite like the large number of candidates in Philippine elections. At least you have the illusion of choice -- unlike in the UK where for the last 12 years voters have been offered a "choice" between two versions of the conservative party.