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April 02, 2010

Comments

Carla

Sorry, I missed something. Why is 6.5% a third of Erap's vote and 12.5% also a third of Erap's vote?

Carla

Okay, I got it. In the intro, you did say "two-thirds of Erap's vote...to Villar". But in the equations below, both percentages are described as "one third of Erap's vote".

Would Gibo Teodoro not benefit at all from Erap's withdrawal?

In any case, I'm not voting this year. For the first time since I became 18, I'm boycotting the elections. The choices are so poor, I can't even get myself to choose the "lesser evil". Maybe you'd feel the same way if you were here and had to choose between Labour and Tories.

torn

Oops – thanks Carla, I have corrected it now.

No, I don’t think Gibo would benefit from Erap’s withdrawal. He is still the administration candidate, at least formally, and seems to have little masa appeal, despite the blue jeans that he conspicuously and rather pathetically in my view wears at every public outing.

Funnily enough, I am going to vote in a British election for the first time since 1993. I am registering in Brighton, where there is a real chance that the Greens may win their first parliamentary seat. To back up your point about the pointlessness of voting for the lesser evil, it is a tremendous relief to me that I never voted for “New Labour,” even just to keep the Tories out, given the crazed turn that Blair’s foreign policy subsequently took.

More generally, I quite agree that democracy has to be more than just exercising a negative option. That’s why I could never agree with all the Democrats who blamed Bush’s victory in 2000 on Ralph Nader’s 1 million votes. Nader had every right to stand and his supporters had every right to vote for him. The Democrats lost in 2000 because of Gore’s crap campaign (and the Supreme Court), not because of Nader. But perhaps I am wandering a bit off point.

Any plans for a visit?

Carla

I've heard of Caroline Lucas's bid for parliament. I hope she does win! I hope LibDems win more seats, too. I know they're not coherent sometimes but they're (nearly) the only ones who opposed the Iraq invasion and the only ones untainted by the recent expenses scandal.

I think this is the LibDems' best chance to become the other major party in British politics, though the first-past-the-post system is not kind to smaller parties like theirs and the Greens. A hung parliament looks like a desirable option to me compared to a Tory majority or indeed, a Labour majority.

Would love to visit but not looking likely this year. My passport will be at the Home Office for several months as they decide whether I'm "fit" to stay in this country without stealing jobs or benefits. :-)

tornandfrayed.typepad.com

When will erap withdraw in favour of villar .. He-he-he :)

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