Torn and frayed in Manila

Will Erap’s name appear on the ballot?

“The Philippines seems like the sort of country where anyone can do anything” a friend said on hearing that Mae Paner, the pleasantly plump actress known as Juana Change, is featured in an exhibition of nude portraits (a performance described by Jim Paredes as “fearless … a must see”).

However, there is a downside to the disregard for rules in the Philippines, especially in the electoral season.

What has surprised me about Estrada’s declaration that he intends to run for reelection is not just that it is obviously unconstitutional and violates his pardon (which prohibits him from engaging in political activity), but that the response from Comelec seemed so spineless:

Speaking at a media briefing, [Comelec Chair] Melo said the Comelec could not stop Estrada from filing a certificate of candidacy. “We cannot say if he is qualified or not. There is no case against him. Right now, it seems that he is qualified because there is no protest against him,” he said.

Isn't this the sort of issue where one would look to the Commission on Elections to make a preliminary ruling, even if the issue will eventually be decided by the Supreme Court? This point was well made in a letter in the Inquirer this week:

Is the Commission on Elections not supposed to check the certificates of candidacy and see if the applicants are qualified? Are they not supposed to approve or disapprove it? What if nobody files a complaint? Then the application is deemed approved. Comelec Chair Melo said that “it seems that he [Estrada] is qualified because there is no protest against him.” It is the Comelec who should say if a candidate is qualified or not.

However, if the ultimate arbiter in this matter will have to be the Supreme Court, this will throw up huge practical difficulties, as pointed out in another letter to the Inquirer:

The point is the high court’s rulings in these parts generally take at least three months, from when an issue becomes justiciable. And that is ignoring the time for motions for review, etc, after the initial ruling has been issued. At the earliest, then, Erap’s case would become justiciable after Dec. 14, when the Comelec shall have received all the certificates of candidacy and is ready to order the printing of the ballots. I seriously doubt the ballot printing process is amenable, if necessary, to a re-run. At that juncture, then, I ask: “What kind of ballot must the Comelec order to be printed?” Is it one that includes or excludes Estrada among the presidential candidates? I assume that would somehow depend on the Comelec’s own position on Erap’s capacity or incapacity to run. And so, assuming it believes Erap is qualified, and thus has put his name on the ballot, will the votes cast for him be counted even if he may be eventually disqualified? On the other hand, if the Comelec is of the opinion that Erap cannot run and has thus excluded his name in the ballot, what happens if the Justices finally rule in his favor?

I would imagine that a likely scenario is that Erap’s name will appear on the ballot paper, but the Supreme Court will eventually rule that he is ineligible. In that case I am sure that millions of hard core Erap fans will vote for him anyway. If in the final result the number of spoiled ballots (i.e., votes for Erap) is close to the number of votes cast for Villar and Noynoy, or even exceeds them, then where will we be?

GMA cares

But what about?

Philippine population: Fit to burst

I am glad that former Health Secretary Alberto Romualdez is still leading the fight for a sensible population policy in the Philippines. There were many disastrous aspects to Estrada’s brief and boozy presidency, but at least Erap and Romualdez had the common sense to realize there has to be a limit to an exploding population that is condemning millions of Filipinos to perpetual poverty, driving rural populations into already overburdened cities, and destroying the natural environment of one of the most beautiful and ecologically diverse countries on the planet.

Romualdez’s plan to increase the distribution of contraceptives and to promote a two-child policy was jettisoned by the current president, who has slavishly followed the medieval line of bishops. Eight years have been lost during which time the population has grown from 76.5 million (2000 census) to 92.6 million (US government estimate), making stemming the tide that much harder. To you give an idea of the pace of population growth in the Philippines over the medium term, a government survey in 1960 indicated a population of 27 million.

Estimates of the population doubling time of the Philippines range from 29 to 39 years. Since most of us can have a reasonable expectation of living until 2038 I wonder how you feel about sharing the country with 185 million others (and perhaps one or two trees)?

Is the Church saying that there is no limit at all to the number of people the environment can support? That a population of 185 million is no problem? What about 300 million? Or 500 million? What happens when there are so many people and so few resources that Filipinos massacre each other so their children can eat? Will the Church prevent people from exercising control over the size of their families even then?

Actually it is not fair to describe the church’s position as medieval, since in terms of spreading disinformation and bullying its opponents it is frighteningly modern. The idea that communion would be denied to politicians who support “permissive abortion” (as practiced by Archbishop Jesus Dosado in Ozamiz) is just shocking. The reproductive health bill has nothing to do with abortion. As Edsel Lagman, the main supporter of the bill points out, Dosado's move was "completely without basis" because no lawmaker has advocated the legalization of abortion. Dosado’s use of this straw man (supported by the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines) is a clear demonstration that if the Church sticks to the facts it has no case at all.

Augean stables

Winnie Monsod got some flak for asking last week, People Power IV? No thanks!, but her column today is a fair and perfectly balanced summary of the difficulties facing the Philippines as it tries to figure out how to respond to the credible recent reports of huge and extensive corruption in the administration. I wouldn’t reach the same conclusion as her, but I wouldn’t claim there are easy answers to these questions, because there aren’t.

There is a bit of a problem with her first paragraph though.

Do I want President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to be removed from office? Only if she has been found guilty of crimes listed in the Constitution and only through the prescribed process—in short, impeachment.

But one of the crimes the president is accused of is cheating in the 2004 election, which led to the election of the very pro-administration congressmen who would vote on an impeachment motion. It is exactly this kind of inbreeding within the formal political system that has persuaded many Filipinos that no justice can be expected there.

It is true as Mareng Winnie says that there would be short-term economic and other benefits from the continuation of an Arroyo presidency until 2010. But what sort of message does that send to future presidents? It is OK to bleed the country dry so long as projects don’t bukol too noticeably?

It is very hard for the Philippines to have to consider a third extra-constitutional regime change in just over 20 years but that is not the fault of the protestors. It is the fault of the “greedy group”, which alas is much wider than the four people identified by Jun Lozada last week. The stables have to be cleaned one day and better sooner than later.

Makati interfaith rally disappoints

The much anticipated rally in Makati this evening failed to draw in the middle class office workers and may have marked the end of attempts to unseat President Arroyo.

Shortly before 5pm I received an excited phone call from a friend who told me that the crowd stretched from the Ninoy statue on the corner of Paseo de Roxas and Ayala (the traditional centre of Makati rallies) to the fire station (about a kilometre away). I had planned to check out the scene anyway, but I caught the MRT with a heightened sense of excitement. I have walked the stretch from Ayala station to Ninoy a few times on the way to rallies, so I have a sense of the landmarks; if it is a small rally, you don’t start to feel the vibe until after Makati Ave, if it is a bit bigger you will see groups of people by the Pen, and so on back to the station.

Today there were jeepneys blaring out political rock a couple of hundred metres before the Pen (a good sign for the organizers) and standing on the fringes I met a friend of mine whom I wouldn’t have expected to see at a political rally (another promising sign for the rally). We walked together toward core of the demonstration and, while it did get a bit tight near the middle, the crowd was still easy enough to negotiate. We met frayed on Paseo—surely a bad sign, in a big crowd it is very difficult to meet a friend, cell phones or not—and stayed for about 45 minutes.

I’ll be interested to hear the estimates of the crowd size. I wouldn’t have put it at more than 10,000—15,000, though it is hard to tell when you are in the middle of it. There were certainly nowhere near the 100,000 people being bruited about earlier in the week. What I could tell though was that the crowd was primarily the poor pro-Erap brigade, a scattering of Jesus is Lord and other religious types, NGO workers, and the sort of politically active middle-class people you might encounter at any rally. Where were the office workers? Scuttling back to the trains and the buses as usual I suppose.

Earlier in the day I read mlq’s plea for attendance at the rally. Manolo’s infectious enthusiasm, coupled with the pictures of Jun Lozada at the Polytechnic University on the cover of today’s Inquirer, made me wonder whether some sort of coalition of idealistic youth, religious groups, and disaffected middle and lower class regular Pinoys was being forged in the furnace of Lozada’s damning testimony.

The gaps in the crowd and the absence of any real collective sense of purpose told their own story. I can’t help feeling that President (and her closest ally, political apathy) were the real victors tonight. If the people can’t be persuaded to come out after the revelations of the last few weeks I suspect they never will.

You get the government you deserve, as they say.

“Imperial Manila”

Isn’t this just about the most annoying expression you have ever heard?

You don’t have to go much further than today’s Inquirer, where “33 dead, P900M lost in 8 days of rains in Bicol, east Visayas” is buried on page 4, for evidence of the dominance of the capital city in Philippine political life.

Although Tokyo, for example, is at least as dominant a capital as Manila, it is true that there is a need to strengthen the Philippine regions.

However, despite the tirade against “Imperial Manila” in President Arroyo’s state of the nation address in 2006 and the phrase’s recent resurrection during the current ZTE crisis, I haven’t seen evidence of much genuine commitment to regionalism in government policy.

As the wonderfully named Planet Naga points out:

If she (and any other president for that matter) were really sincere about dismantling "Imperial Manila," a regional block allocation system should be the non-negotiable centerpiece of the annual budget.

In fact, as Mayor Binay of Makati has pointed out, not only is there no regional block allocation, even the internal revenue allotment (IRA) to local governments is distributed in an inequitable and partial manner.

“Under Mrs. Arroyo’s regime, the timely release of IRA and other development funds to LGUs is a reward for loyalty. This is a perversion of the objectives of the IRA as envisioned in the Local Government Code, which is to provide LGUs a degree of financial independence from Malacanang,” he said.

Binay said if Mrs. Arroyo is really sincere in her statement that LGUs are very vital in economic development, and if it is really true that the national government has the money, then she should release the IRA on time.

“The statement about the provinces being controlled by Imperial Manila was meant to play to the galleries. The reality, however, is that the local governments, the entire country, are being held hostage by Imperial Arroyo,” he said.

I’m with Binay on that one. It seems that the president’s deep love for the Philippine regions tends to surface only when she is in grave political difficulty in Manila or wants to demonstrate the strength of her provincial powerbase. "Imperial Manila" is just another empty expression with which to divert attention from the real issues facing us.

Just how stupid do they think we are?

Returning to less edifying matters, the Arroyo administration’s lack of respect for the public’s common sense always seems to find new depths to plumb. The claim that the half million peso “keep quiet’ bribe given to Jun Lozada by Deputy Executive Secretary Manuel Gaite was “not public money” was nicely ridiculed in the Inquirer on Wednesday.

He may be receiving a monthly salary of only about P50,000, but Deputy Executive Secretary Manuel Gaite says he will not hesitate to shell out P500,000 to a person in need -- like whistle-blower Rodolfo Noel “Jun” Lozada Jr.

Gaite on Tuesday portrayed himself as the proverbial Good Samaritan who lent a hand to Lozada, only to discover later that the man had turned against him.

“I believed him, I pitied him,” Gaite said in a statement. “When my wife saw the text [message] and asked me about it, she also felt pity for him and asked if there was any way I could help him.”

Gaite admitted giving P500,000 to Lozada through the latter’s brother Owe, but said that it came from his own pocket. Gaite’s statement included what appeared to be a photocopied receipt signed by Owe Lozada for the P500,000.

“I wish to state that no government fund was used in the money that I gave to Mr. Lozada,” Gaite said.

“It is not true, as claimed by Lozada, that the money I gave him through his brother was meant to prevent him from appearing in the Senate hearing nor make him tell a lie if he appears in the hearing.”

Perhaps realizing how fatuous this tale sounded, by today, the Malacañang spin doctors were spinning another (but no more probable) story.

Here is Gaite’s boss, Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita:

“He (Gaite) produced the amount, but it does not necessarily mean that it came from his pocket,” Ermita said at his regular press conference.

Ermita said Gaite, the head of the Office of the Executive Secretary’s legal department, would be able to explain how he was able to pool the P500,000. But Ermita left to his subordinate the burden of filling up the missing details.

Pressed to divulge the private donor in an ambush interview, Ermita said: “I cannot tell that to you. As I told you, he (Gaite) is willing to divulge that at the proper time, at the proper forum.”

Ermita said there was an “ongoing legal process” and he was not in a position to expound on the issue.

“But he’s not saying that it came from his own pocket,” Ermita said. “Don’t force me to say it. You might succeed.”

Huh?

Celebrating the Eucharist with Jun Lozada

J.Lo. Hindi ka nag-iisa

Jun Lozada entered the La Salle gymnasium today like a prize fighter. Just before 10am a ripple of applause from the stage-left entrance quickly spread across the 2,500 strong audience. J. Lo (as his name now appears on t-shirts) made his way slowly to the front with flashbulbs popping and the clapping going on and on.

I was prepared for a tedious morning, but events rattled along at a decent lick, starting with a procession by the priests, clad in fetching white and mauve robes. Father Manoling Francisco from the Ateneo de Manila University delivered a clear and effective homily, comparing the reluctance of the country to acknowledge the abuse it had suffered at the hands of corrupt officials to the difficulty rape victims have in articulating their suffering. Communion was followed by the singing of “Bayan ko” complete with clenched fists, and speeches by former President Cory Aquino and Lozada.

This was an AB crowd—the 10,000 people who attended Friday’s rally in Makati (a decent number, but not spectacular) is a better indication of public feeling. Nevertheless, the presence of so many of the political elite (the Inquirer notes that close to 60 former Cabinet officials from the Aquino, Ramos, Estrada, and Arroyo governments were there) is an indication that this scandal is not going to fade away any time soon. We also Senator Mar Roxas, for whom the events of the past couple of weeks have provided a perfect opportunity to perfect his “presidential” look.

I would rank the demonstrations accompanying Lozada’s testimony as more serious for the government than the Hello Garci rallies (2004–2006) but much less threatening than the EDSA II demonstrations (2000–2001) or even the anti-Cha-Cha rallies at the tail end of the Ramos administration (1997).

When I think back to the fall of Erap, his support ebbed away in several distinct phases as he lost: (1) the House, (2) moral authority, (3) the street, (4) his cabinet, and (5) the military.

By comparison, Gloria is rattled, but still in a much stronger position than Erap in 2000.

1. It seems almost inconceivable that a motion to impeach her would prosper in the administration-controlled the House of Representatives.

2. On the other hand, Gloria’s moral stock is now almost as low as Erap’s seven years ago.

3. So far the Lozada-related rallies are smaller and less spontaneous than those against Erap. A lot is going to depend on how the Senate handles its investigation into the substance of the ZTE fiasco and whether this can be coordinated with the parliament of the streets.

4. As for the cabinet, while a few under-secretaries may heed their consciences, the rest are probably too compromised to leave now.

5. The military will probably do what it always does, which is to watch how the wind blows and jump at the last minute.

Item 3 is the crucial one. As Patti Smith said, the people have the power. But will they use it?

Lozada’s testimony: a defining moment?

Jun Lozada’s press conference and testimony before the Senate last week offered such a rich picture of the workings of the Arroyo administration that it is hard to know where to begin.

1. The abduction of the terrified Lozada at the airport by government officials, including the plain-clothed police and the deputy chief of the airport, is the kind of event one associates with the most brazen military South American dictatorship.

2. In fact, as has been demonstrated time and time again, all that stops the Philippines from becoming a banana republic is the presence of a powerful media. Without the glare of the TV spotlights and the probing newsmen Jun Lozada would now be playing with the fishes at the bottom of Manila Bay.

3. Such events have a habit of adding at least one choice phrase to the pungent Philippine political vocabulary. This shabby affair has given us Neri’s instructions to Lozada: “moderate their greed”, a phrase that has been seized on by both Winnie Monsod and Randy David as indicating both the rapacious greed of the members of the current administration (the “greed” that Lozada was asked to moderate amounted to $130 million for only one participant, Abalos—50% of the entire project cost!) and the extent to which such corrupt practices have been accepted as normal in the current polluted environment (i.e., it was only the huge amount of this “commission” that seemed to bother Neri, not its existence).

4. Another nice moment came when Lozada explained that: “I guess the trouble started when Chairman Abalos wanted to protect his $130 million … How shall I put this? … Commission on the project”. Ah yes, the pause is all!

5. One of my favorite features of Philippine scandals is the light they shed on the protagonists’ relationships with each other. Take the nicknames: most famously of course there was “Garci”, but this time around we discovered that Atienza refers to Executive Secretary Ermita as “ES” and the president simply as “ma’am” in the manner of a domestic servant.

6. There are lies, damned lies, and there is Lito Atienza. In selecting the DENR chief to voice the government’s implausible version of the events, the president chose well, for no one is more versed in the bluster of falsehood than the former mayor of Manila. It is a toss up as to which is more unbelievable, Atienza’s story on why Lozada left the country on the eve of his appearance before the Senate (“He asked permission to attend the global bio fuels conference and exhibition in London and later on to meet with stakeholders”) or his explanation of why Lozada was kidnapped by police in civilian uniforms on his return (“there was no kidnapping, no abduction … there’s distortion of the news”). Let’s hope the colourfully shirted one testifies before the Senate next week and clears up these misunderstandings.

Despite all of this, I can’t see all this going anywhere. The Senate can expose the administration’s failings as much as it likes but an impeachment motion has to begin in the House and last Monday’s ousting of the Speaker by the pro-Malacañang block indicates that the president’s control over that body is stronger than ever. Lozada’s explosive testimony reminds me of Perfecto Yasay’s during the BW scandal all those years ago: explosive, but too far from the real center of power to prove fatal. Only when Gloria meets her Chavit—when someone in the inner circle finally turns the screw—will we see a “For rent” sign outside the palace. Will Joe de V be that man?

Scumbag of the week: Sergio Apostol

In a week dominated by unpleasant stories, the abuse heaped on whistleblower Jun Lozada by Malacañang lawyer Sergio Apostol stands out. Referring to Lozada as a “probinsyanong Intsik” (provincial Chinese), Apostol described him as “troublemaker” who should be “deported”. Since Lozada is a natural born Filipino of Chinese ancestry with nowhere to be deported to, this was simply a racial slur of the most unpleasant kind. So far as I am aware, there has been no apology from Apostol, despite widespread protests from the Chinese-Filipino community.