The prospects for the right in the Philippines

Manolo Quezon has published an excellent rejoinder to my previous post. If he’s correct and a move to the right in the Philippines is unlikely, what are the alternatives?

Continue with a pro-American, pro-big-business capitalist model. In this scenario, Gloria would stumble through her six-year term to be replaced by, say, Mar Roxas in 2010. The social structure that underpins the political process would be unchanged, in fact with a scion from one of the country’s richest families as president, it would be stronger than ever.

A continuation of the present is always worth a bet, but Randy David’s original article questioned whether the status quo is sustainable. He argued persuasively that it is not.

One major problem with this model is the Government's complete inability to come to terms with the deteriorating security problem. Warlordism and continuous high-level violence are no longer mainly restricted to Mindanao, as they were in Ramos’s time; huge swathes of Mindoro and Quezon provinces are rapidly becoming ungovernable. In the end, this is bound to affect the success of the export-driven business model that Gloria wants to put in place, as has happened in Colombia and Nigeria, among others.

Move to the left. Like Quezon, I don’t think the Philippines will turn to the left in the short term. The fact that Bayan Muna failed to put up a Presidential candidate in the 2004 elections indicates not only its financial weakness vis à vis the other parties, but its own perception of its electoral prospects. There are many reasons for this, including what Quezon describes as the “inherent entrepreneurial, if not actually rightist, mentality of many of the poor”, but this post is already way too long to go into them here.

Move to towards a theocracy. Disenchantment with the material world makes a shift to a “higher” plane an increasingly attractive option. The fact that a mediocre candidate like Brother Eddie made a good showing in the 2004 elections is testament to that. Still, the religious parties will face the same problem that has always bedevilled the left – they are split into numerous sects and religions, so they seem more likely to limit themselves to exerting influence on the government on key issues, rather than becoming an alternative government.

Increase in regional political power bases at the expense of central government. Quezon makes an interesting argument related to the ever-increasing expenses of national political campaigns:

Ironically, the need to bribe everyone makes political office, and thus power, more and more expensive -increasingly too expensive on a national scale. The political class has therefore clearly decided it's better off with small fiefdoms which are cheaper to maintain than national office: hence the efforts to go parliamentary and federal.

There is a lot in that.

Move to the right. So where does that leave the right? I think two factors will be critical.

First, a downturn in the world economy would be disastrous for labour-exporters like the Philippines. Mass unemployment in the West on the scale of that in the 1980s would slow labour migration, cutting off a critical safety valve. If bright, disenfranchised Filipinos are no longer able to seek change through the departure lounge of NAIA, they will seek it here.

Second, if the trend of the last five years continues, security seems likely to deteriorate still further. If the Philippines continues to slide slowly and sedately towards anarchy, the feeling that “something must be done” – the same sentiment that propelled Mayor Duterte to power on a “law and order” platform in Davao and won Ping Lacson a prominent position in national politics despite his human rights record – will strengthen.

Comments

[soloflite]

interesting piece.

My two cents is that our "democracy" is probably still the best for us, at least considering the alternatives.

What can change the scene is for someone to somehow implement better elections AND fix the requirements of the elections. Duterte and Bayani Fernando have virtually nil chances of gaining the presidency as long as the masa vote is in place.

Ironically, the neighborhood tambay's or the town drunkard's vote has as much weight as your own. More if he has the blessing of the mayor. Maybe we should reduce the voting populace to those who pay taxes? or have permanent home addresses? Maybe ban the deadweights of society? I dunno.

But as long as the local officials (and of course the national officials) allow these virtual voting milking cows to exists, I doubt there would be any change in our system.

[torn]

Thanks for the comment. I agree that democracy is the best option for the Philippines. My ruminations on the possibility of a move to the right weren't prompted by any desire for that to happen, I just wanted to see whether there was any likelihood that it would.

I'm sure you are right that the key lies to mobilizing the masa vote, but that has been done by rightists in countries in similar situations (Thaksin in Thailand, for example). However, if the right is to attract popular support, it needs a proper party machinery. If Lacson doesn't have that in place he will inevitably be blown away by either a populist leader with wide name recognition (e.g. FPJ) or by a trapo skilled at working through local party bosses (Gloria).

I don't think I would be in favour of a restrictive franchise though. After all, who would do the selecting? And since the neighbourhood tambay is as affected by government policies as the rest of us, I think he deserves a say. And finally, if we are talking about deadweights, I think there are plenty of those in the property-owning classes.

Your own blog is interesting by the way -- I'll add it to my reading list.